A Scientific Consensus on Global Climate Change?

          Imagine this: Over the period of several weeks you notice a small lump growing under your skin on your neck area. You are uncertain what it is or what it could mean but you know enough to know that it could be a dangerous cancer lump. What do you do? Should you Google it? Should you ask your friends? Should you ask respected scholars? Should you go see a medical doctor? Or should you just ignore it and hope that it goes away?

          To most outsiders the answer seems very obvious – go see a doctor! He will know best what it could be and what to do about it. However, for those in similar situations, history has shows that each of the above answered have frequently been employed in such life or death choices, sometimes with fatal consequences. Does the doctor know for sure the answer? Rarely if ever. Does he guarantee his solution will work? No. Does he guarantee it is even the best solution? No. But who better is there to answer the question than a doctor? Surely not your friends or family, not one with a Doctorate of Philosophy in Music Theory, not those who yell loudest, but those who have the most training on the subject.

          We can apply this to climate change. There is very little debate that the earth has been getting warmer. Nor do I believe that many would refuse to concede that the potential extreme consequences that are proposed by some could have devastating effects on the globe. More in the limelight in the debate is whether or not humans are causing this warming, whether the climate is changing a significant amount, and whether we can stop it. We have a big lump, there are vast evidences of climate change in the world today, but the real question is what are we going to do about it? Who do we go to get the best answers? Who are the doctors, the experts?

          The experts, or doctors, in global climate change are those who are actively studying and publishing in peer-reviewed journals on the issue of global climate change. They are climatologist, those who are trained and publish within the issues of the climate. Although everyone’s opinion does count, if we want the best results and the best answers we must go to those who know the most about the issues. Just because someone has a doctorate does not qualify him to speak on the issue with authority. Once again, you would not go to one with a doctorate of philosophy in music to diagnose your potentially cancerous lump.

          So what do the experts in climate change say? In this article I will discuss three of the major measurements of this question:

1.  What is the opinion of individual experts? 
2. What do the peer-reviewed research papers say on the matter? 
3. What do prevalent and relevant societies have to say about the matter?  

          I will only examine singular instances and studies.

          In a 2009 poll by Peter Doran and Maggie Zimmerman, in which 3,146 earth scientists responded 75 out of the 77 (97.4%) published climatologists believed humans were a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures. The study’s results also show a general positive correlation between education and a belief in anthropogenic climate change.

          Naomi Oreskes preformed a study on 928 peer-reviewed abstracts between 1993 and 2003 that had the key-word “global climate change” in which she reviewed the abstracts view on the legitimacy of anthropogenic climate change. She found that 20% explicitly endorsed it, 55% implicitly endorsed it, while the remaining 25% did not take a stance on validity. Tellingly no abstract explicitly rejected anthropogenic climate change.

          Julie Brigham-Grett stated in 2006 that “…the AAPG [American Association of Petroleum Geologists] stands alone among scientific societies in its denial of human-induced effects on global warming." Since that time the AAPG has changed its statement which according to Bigham-Grett would mean that no scientific body of national or international standing rejects the findings of human-induced effects on climate change.

          My conclusion in viewing this and such studies have lead me to believe that there is no significant debate among practicing scientists about the validity of anthropogenic climate change. Although there are those who are knowledgeable and are experts that oppose it, there are examples of these people in any subject including gravity or micro and macro evolution.

          Will there ever be a complete consensus on global climate change? Probably not. Will the experts always have the best answer? Maybe not. Who would better know what to do? I am content to believe a vast majority of leading scientists on the topics in the field. I am not a scientist, I do not know the majority of science behind global climate change, nor do I really feel a need to learn them to be confident in my choice. Climatology is not my field of interest or expertise. My personal overarching questions are “who would know best?” and “who will I trust with my children’s lives?” With democracy widespread in most all progressive countries we have a personal moral responsibility and stewardship over this earth; our voices count. We need to listen to what the experts are warning us about and move forward with the best scientific knowledge that they have to offer.

Carbon Dioxide(CO2) Emissions by Country per Capita

Works Cited 

Brigham-Grette,  J., Anderson, S., Clague, J., Cole, J., Doran, P., Gillespie, A., ... Styles, B. (2006). Petroleum geologists' award to novelist crichton Is inappropriate. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 87. p. 36. 

Doran, P., & Zimmerman, M. K. (2009). Examining the scientific consensus on climate change.           Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 90.3 : p. 22.

Census Bureau (2011) . International programs. Census Bureau Home Page. U.S. 

Oreskes, N. (2004) Beyond the ivory tower: The scientific consensus on climate change. Science 306.5702.

Polling Report, Company (2011). PollingReport.com.